Novartis Raises Sales Targets for Key Cancer Drugs, Tweaks Yearly Growth Guidance

Novartis has raised its peak sales guidance for two major cancer drugs:
Kisqali (for breast cancer), now expected to exceed $10 billion at peak (previously $8 billion), and Scemblix (for leukemia), upgraded to $4 billion from $3 billion1 3.

The company’s upgraded revenue expectations reflect confidence in recent drug performance and pipeline momentum, projecting at least $14 billion in combined peak revenue from these two drugs alone3.

Novartis reported sales of $11.8 billion in the first quarter of 2024, representing 11% year-over-year growth at constant currency, and as a result, raised its full-year growth outlook to ‘high single to low double digits’ from the earlier ‘mid-single digit’ guidance2 7.

While three cancer drugs—Pluvicto, Kisqali, and Scemblix—had slightly underperformed analyst expectations in early 2024, the company expects significant future sales expansion, especially with new indications and global market growth2.

Pluvicto (prostate cancer) faced temporary supply shortages in 2023 but is projected to grow steadily, especially with upcoming regulatory filings for earlier treatment settings and planned regulatory submissions in the U.S., China, and Japan2.

Kisqali has been filed for approval in early-stage HR-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer; minor manufacturing updates are being made to comply with regulatory standards, with major U.S. launch expected in the second half of 20242.

Scemblix showed superior efficacy over standard care in recent trials for newly diagnosed chronic myeloid leukemia and awaits further data release at major oncology conferences2.

Novartis also increased its mid-term sales growth outlook to at least 6% annually through 2029, citing a robust pipeline and high-value launches8.

The company has maintained its full-year guidance for high single-digit sales growth and low teen-digit core operating income growth, supported by the strong performance of its oncology portfolio4 7.