Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema Falls Short of Weight Loss Expectations, Highlighting High Investor Expectations

CagriSema's Weight Loss Performance:
The REDEFINE 1 trial showed that CagriSema achieved a 22.7% weight loss at 68 weeks, which, while superior to semaglutide and cagrilintide, fell short of the 25% weight loss expectation set by Novo Nordisk12.

Market Impact:
The disappointing results led to a significant drop in Novo Nordisk's market value, with the stock falling by 20% to $82, wiping out $72 billion from its market cap23.

Competitive Landscape:
The performance of CagriSema is comparable to Eli Lilly's Zepbound (tirzepatide), which achieved 22.5% and 20.9% weight loss at 72 weeks. This has strengthened Eli Lilly's position in the obesity market24.

Tolerability Concerns:
The flexible dosing schedule in the REDEFINE 1 trial, where fewer than 60% of patients reached the highest dose, raised concerns about the tolerability profile of CagriSema23.

Future Plans:
Novo Nordisk plans to further explore the additional weight loss potential of CagriSema, with the REDEFINE 2 trial focusing on adults with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight expected to provide more insights in the first half of 202514.

Sources:

1. https://www.novonordisk.com/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.html?id=915082

2. https://www.biospace.com/business/novos-cagrisema-blunder-underscores-sky-high-investor-expectations-for-weight-loss-drugs

3. https://www.perigon.io/news/health/2024/12/20/novo-nordisk-cagrisema-trials-show-weight-loss-shortfall

4. https://www.biospace.com/drug-development/novo-nosedives-on-underwhelming-cagrisema-phase-iii-weight-loss-data