Trump’s Re-Election: A Mixed Bag for Biopharma with M&A Upsides and Vaccine Concerns

Mixed Impact:
Analysts predict a mixed impact of Trump's re-election on the biopharma industry, with potential positives in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) but concerns over vaccine policy and FDA independence1 3 4.

M&A Prospects:
A second Trump administration is expected to have a friendlier FTC, which could lead to increased M&A activity, benefiting smaller biotechs1 3 4.

Vaccine Concerns:
The appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine advocate, to a healthcare role could negatively impact vaccine sales and development, affecting companies like Pfizer, Moderna, GSK, and Sanofi2 3 4.

FDA Independence:
There is uncertainty regarding FDA independence under a second Trump administration, which could impact large-cap biopharma companies1 3.

Inflation Reduction Act:
The Trump administration may roll back or deprioritize the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes provisions for Medicare to negotiate drug prices, potentially leading to changes in drug pricing policies1 4.

Regulatory Changes:
The administration is expected to usher in a less restrictive FTC, which could result in increased M&A activity, but there are concerns over potential regulatory changes and their impact on the biopharma industry4 5.